Elections 2019 Update.
LS Polls Fact file:
1999: NDA won 41 out of 54 seats in combined Bihar.
2009: BJP-JDU combine won 32 out of 40 seats. Lalu was the rail mantri and won only four seats.
2014: BJP fought without JDU and won 31 seats. Lalu won four seats
2019: JDU joins the NDA, so does Ram Vilas Paswan, it makes NDA stronger; All three are together now.
Even when Lalu was out of jail, wife Rabri and daughter Misa lost.
The BJP’s leader Sushil Modi feels, “There is no fight. There was a 10% vote share gap between UPA and NDA in 2014 and if we add Nitish’s share, it rises to 17-18%. We will improve our tally to 36-38. We are the ruling party in the state and the Centre. In 2014, we were neither at the state nor at the Centre.”
Differences between Lalu’s sons Tejashwi and Tej Pratap.
BJP’s Sushil Modi says, ‘It is not just a fight between two brothers but a larger tussle among their allies: RJD, Congress, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party or Hindustani Awam Morcha. Because of the infighting they still could not finalize candidates for Madhubani, Valmiki Nagar etc. It’s a namesake mahagatbandhan that has disintegrated even before it could be formed.’
On the other hand, the coalition between NDA partners displayed much better give and take policy. The BJP gave away five sitting MP seats to JDU. This did go down well in the party. In return, the JDU also sacrificed eight seats. Nitish used to fight on 25 seats, which was more than what the BJP fought on. Not just BJP but JDU, too, has made a sacrifice. Now the NDA is fighting on equal number of seats (17 each).
Give and take is part of any alliance.
In Patna Sahib, the sitting MP, Shatrughan Sinha, quit the BJP and joined the Congress. Analysts predict that the BJP nominee Ravi Shanker Prasad will win by a minimum of 2 lakh votes. There is no factor in Sinha’s favour as he used to ride on BJP’s brand earlier. The BJP has five MLAs out of six in the constituency. Patna Sahib remains one of the strongest seats of the BJP.
Many well wishers of Sinha have suggested that Sinha should exit gracefully and join the Yashwant Sinha club. To face such an embarrassment at this stage of life will undo all his previous accomplishments.
As a matter of fact, RJD’s moves are not worth commenting on. They are fighting on just 17 seats all over India. Can they ever form the government at Centre? Why RJD is making such tall claims?
Former allies of NDA – RLSP and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) are now with the RJD led Mahagatbandhan. This does not seem to have hurt the NDA one bit. The NDA gave 20 seats to RLSP in 2015 Vidhan Sabha; they could win only two seats. Similarly the BJP have seen Manjhi’s capacity. In fact, the BJP is very happy that they are gone. Sushil Modi says, ‘They wasted our seats. Neither can they transfer their votes nor win seats. ‘
In all fairness, it can be said that this election is a referendum in the name of Narendra Modi and people of Bihar will vote only for him.